Long Range Outlook

Good evening,

Today is the day for change according to"well known" two global numerical models; GFS and UKMET, and as said " 1000 miles journey begins in step! ", it is really an 1000 miles journey when the models start to talk about upcoming storm at least in the medium range, especially when it is the first in this winter and after a period of RELATIVE drought...

This expected system is driven by a huge area of high pressure that will situate over much of western and central Europe WITH important extension to northern Africa (Algeria and Tunisia) caused by a RELATIVELY deep and "slow moving" area of low pressure situated over S.W Morocco and Canary islands..

This will "hopefully" lead to a deep slow area of low pressure that will situate over the eastern Mideterranean, and will bring " a very welcomed" heavy rains to us..

This is the pattern that GEFS ensembles maps predicted throw many updates in different days, and myself imagined that pattern also, also there is a positive thing regarding that, which is, the monster storm which will affect the whole Western US coast, from Washington state in the north till California in the south, also throw Ohaio, Colorado, Idaho, and even Nevada.

*** P.S :- there is a semi-proven scientific rule says that "when the south western areas of the US is affected by a storm, 15 days* later we will be affected by same strength of the previous storm.

* 15 days :- from day zero upto 15th day

Now we are patientlessly waiting the ECMWF update of 12z 14/12/08, which is the strongest of all the Global Numerical Weather models for our region and many regions worldwide, that will determine the fate of the upcoming storm, NOT exactly determines but adds a very welcomed surplus to our favorite scenario ..

Thank you for ur reading ..

see u later this week..

Ayman Sawalha

JordanWeather Longrange weather Forecaster