18c difference in less than 24hrs should be drama!

Good Morning All,

Latest runs of the NWP, were very interesting, and suppose to be somehow accurate now due to the closer 0hour date.

The latest runs indicates of something is close to drama more than Science! We will have a difference of 18c temperatures dropping between Monday(9thFeb) and Tuesday(10thFeb), which is period less than 24 hours. This because of developing of a very deep area of low pressure (995mb), and this area of low pressure track will be Khmasin (desert) similar track, so in the warm front, a very drastic rise in temperatures will occur and Amman could get a temperature of 25-26c on Monday noon time (which is higher than the current average about 13c!), while within the moving of the low pressure from northern African Coast towards Turkey, the area of low pressure will deepen and will pull arctic cold air mass situating over central Europe, and quickly will enter to the Eastern Mediterranean, so by Tuesday noon time the temperatures in Amman could be just 8c (which is lower than the current average about 4c!!). This is all will happen in just one day!!

I just can describe what will happen between Monday and Tuesday amazing and excellent factor, because this will force severe convection for the clouds, and also will support (up-wards motion drastically), so by Tuesday we should see extremely heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, gale winds, and heavy hail. ECMWF model runs, showing that the arctic cold air mass will be carrying enough cold air for some sleet or snow/rain mix over mountains above 1200meters during the evening of Tuesday.

We will keep monitoring, and praying, but keeping a close eye on this system as I said in the previous post, since forecasts have had a tendency to change in a crazy way this year, and since this kind of systems could bring amazing amounts of rain, which is much needed in this period.

Have a nice day,
Mohammed Al-Shaker